Global development worries might soon loosen their clasp on the U.S. stock market, states PNC’s Jeff Mills. Mills—Co-Chief Investment Strategist at PNC Financial Services Group—said to CNBC, “I believe, as we shift into the second half of the year, this story of global growth possibly causing troubles here in the U.S. would be shifting to a stabilization of universal growth and then more of a focal point on things such as earnings.” A short-term treasury gain crossing more than their long-term counterparts is extensively seen as an indication of an oncoming recession. As an alternative, he stated financiers must take the reversion with “a pinch of salt,” as it was more of an officially driven step than an absolute indication of the U.S. economy striking the brakes.
Mills stated, “There is an implication going on in the preset-income market presently. It may be underappreciated. Structurally, the yield curve is, in fact, a bit flatter than it usually would be, so you can see more recurrent inversions that do not unavoidably have to do with the growth.” The strategist further added, “From a timing viewpoint, we all know that the unpredictability amid inversion and recession is quite large, and you actually see positive S&P 500 returns amid the first date of inversion and the subsequent recession. So this is certainly not the time to strike the panic button and advertise right away. You have to admit it, but I believe we almost certainly still have a little bit more time.”
On a similar note, recently, TrendMacro’s CIO stated that the global recession is possible if the U.S. and China cannot play nice. Trade talks amid the U.S. and China are scheduled. Steven Mnuchin—Treasury Secretary—recently stated that another phase of “constructive trade discussions in Beijing” has ended and he looks ahead to “continue these significant discussions in the U.S. in the next week.” Donald Luskin—TrendMacro’s CIO—said that the trade discussions amid the two largest economies globally are vital to the global economy.